Israeli Intel Estimate: New Iranian threat from Iraq. Gaza escalates. Moscow jumps on Palestinian issue

Iranian forces are moving back from Israel’s border to northern and eastern Syria and arming Shiite proxies with surface missiles. This is reported in the Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN) Estimate 2019, laid before the government two weeks ago and divided into two sections: pre- and post-election. The document foresees heightened tensions on the Gaza and northern fronts in the coming months.

After the April 9 general election, the next government will have to take a stand on President Donald Trump’s ”Deal of the Century” for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a challenge which does not figure in any party campaign.
In the run-up to the election, AMAN predicts the following events:

  1. The Gaza Strip will heat up. Already this week, thousands of Palestinians are gathering night after night on the Gaza border to attack Israeli troops with explosive devices and hand grenades. The explosions cause alarm in neighboring Israeli communities.
  2. The northern front, including the Golan, will see escalating violence from across the Syrian border. The Iranian Al Qods Brigades and Hizballah will be choosing their moment to fire missiles into Israel, taking advantage of the Russian presence somewhat inhibiting Israeli payback.
  3. Palestinian terrorists will raise the stakes in Judea and Samaria so as to cast a pall on Israel’s election, encouraged by Moscow’s first supportive intervention in the Palestinian arena. The first Palestinian unity conference is taking place this week with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the chair. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that the Palestinians reckon that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, when he arrives in the Russian capital on Feb. 21, will find in the Kremlin a newly friendly face for the Palestinian cause. Therefore, Iran and Syria won’t be the only items on the agenda of his talks with President Vladimir Putin.

These subjects will be explored in depth with exclusive disclosures in the coming issue of DEBKA Weekly (for subscribers) out on Friday, Feb. 15. To sign in, click here.

The Intelligence Estimate points to changes in Iran’s Syrian deployment. Its forces are described as pulling away from proximity with Israel’s northern border and regrouping in northern and eastern Syria. This redeployment is cause for concern in Israel. Rather than being driven back under the pressure of Israel’s aerial and missile assaults, Tehran aims to take advantage of the coming withdrawal of US troops from Syria to extend its strategic depth into Iraq, from which Iranian missiles can reach Israel. The Iranians are expected to leave their Shiite militias behind for dealing with the Israel front and arm them with ground-to-ground, short-range ballistic missiles. Israel’s northern front is therefore not moving farther away, it is expanding into Iraq and, in addition to the rockets piled up by Hizballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Israel is now faced with ballistic missiles from Iraq and close by.

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24 thoughts on “Israeli Intel Estimate: New Iranian threat from Iraq. Gaza escalates. Moscow jumps on Palestinian issue

  • Feb 13, 2019 @ 21:09 at 21:09

    The Balfour Declaration was given sometimes in November (1917), it follows that the Declaration of Dissolution of West Bank and Gaza better be proclaimed also in November (2019).

    This way the anniversary is out of the harvest time, and people may have a full long weekend for dancing, good eating and drinking, enjoying to the max with friends and family.

    • Feb 13, 2019 @ 22:12 at 22:12

      This is the time for Israel, Arab Gulf and Eastern European Nations to unite and confront Iran, Hizballah, Hamas, and Houthis Shiia that have used up much of their resources for One Strike of Might against Israel and Arabia. America will stare and stand down Russia with NATO along with Ukrainians, Georgians, and Slavic Eastern European States not afraid to exact Past Crime Justice from 1945 to 1989. Communists China will be more than happy yo sell Arms to both sides. Israel once had David taking down Goliath with one shot and Iran is on the verge of being another Venezuela anyway. Nobody will cry about Hizballah, Hamas and Houthis Leadership Either. After the Rockets and Missile hit the Strike Back will be exactly on the Leadership and there are plenty of others ready to take down the Regimes of Shames anyway.

      • Feb 13, 2019 @ 22:36 at 22:36

        Netanyahu needs to ask from PA & Hamas their schedule for the March of Total Return as a remainder for actions long overdue. PA came from Tunis, the fake refugees of West Bank mostly from Jordan, and the fake refugees of Gaza mostly from Egypt. Now, that the PA lies at Oslo are fully recognized by PA & Hamas, there is no need of accepting delays.

        The March of Total Return is long overdue, how long until they vacate the Israelis lands they presently occupy¿

      • Feb 14, 2019 @ 6:11 at 6:11

        Netanyahu will dilly-dally like he always does, and take half way measures against Hezbollah. He will never strike at the heart of Hezbollah unless there is a total existential threat against Israel.

      • Feb 14, 2019 @ 6:39 at 6:39

        You are out of your mind.

        Why would the Eastern Europeans join this fight on your behalf?

    • Feb 16, 2019 @ 6:50 at 6:50

      All this conferences will fail just like of friends of Syria. My advise to Israelis make peace with Palestinians before Arab kings in Persian Gulf.

  • Feb 13, 2019 @ 22:37 at 22:37

    Netanyahu’s perseverating ‘Cat on a Hot Tin Roof Dance’ is Over

    Netanyahu’s exhausting hoopla about Israel going in to Syria and Iran will never ‘wind down’, it’ll will just abruptly end as he’s removed from power.
    Like that Flashdance chick, he’s dancing for his life
    The moment his vaudeville act ends he’s finished politically in Israel.
    Of course, he will be also be politically finished as soon as Mandelblit’s indictments come down tomorrow.

    Dance dance dance, when the music stops later this week, the Energizer Bibicat is finished and the cheering and applause will instantly light up the world.

    • Feb 13, 2019 @ 22:57 at 22:57

      Despite Netanyahu’s hustle trying to sell the Brooklyn Bridge – the facts are Trump has abandoned his ‘Secret Northern Clean Break Operation, as has MbS, the CIS (again), Ehud Barak, Gantz, and Zippy the Conehead

    • Feb 14, 2019 @ 2:12 at 2:12

      Oh grow up, nobody’s interested in your wishful thinking “rainbow and unicorn” fantasies.

  • Feb 13, 2019 @ 22:51 at 22:51

    The future of the Democratic Party in America is BDS-ing Israel – that’s why all the serious Democratic presidential candidates are FOR American freedom to BDS Israel

    The future of America is BDS of Israel – that’s what the ‘next Presidents’ of the US are ALL voting Israel’s future is BDS from America, the EU, and the REST of the Security Council

    • Feb 14, 2019 @ 6:33 at 6:33

      Yes that is what they would like to do but the reality is that they are unlikely to get very far with it. The problem is that they would cut off and isolate Israel and therefore make it seem attractive for immediate enemies to attack thinking that they could finally get rid of Israel once and for all. Big mistake. You know the rest.

  • Feb 13, 2019 @ 23:16 at 23:16

    The US Air Force has a close eye on every Iranian move and will incinerate the threats as they take form beyond threats and words

  • Feb 14, 2019 @ 0:06 at 0:06

    What’s the deal with Toyota?

    • Feb 14, 2019 @ 2:00 at 2:00

      The flags are Hezbollah’s, they do not have enough money to buy T-80BV with reactive armor

      • Feb 14, 2019 @ 11:28 at 11:28

        Who makes the hEzBOLA flags? Toyota too?

        Really, track down the source and distribution trail of those Toyotas.

    • Feb 14, 2019 @ 20:51 at 20:51

      Terrorists love Toyotas.

    • Feb 15, 2019 @ 8:19 at 8:19

      Hitlery funded ISIS and supplied it with weapons and Toyotas from Behgazi through Turkey to Raqqa. These could be captured Toyotas.

  • Feb 14, 2019 @ 3:58 at 3:58

    Israel needs a “Gaza Doctrine” which would state that Israel will use overwhelming force if there is any further provocation from Gaza in the south. Such a course of action, if carried to its logical conclusion, would free Israel to deal with the greater threats from the north and east.

  • Feb 14, 2019 @ 4:49 at 4:49

    Forget about Hamas, Huzbulla, Syria and Iraq. Hit Iran itself and hit it very hard. This is the only viable solution with the Mullahs.

    • Feb 14, 2019 @ 6:35 at 6:35

      This very good idea is quite excellent and the best.

      • Feb 14, 2019 @ 6:42 at 6:42

        Yeah — because Iran will do nothing in retaliation, since they have only had 40 years to plan.

        • Feb 14, 2019 @ 11:33 at 11:33

          You think that Fascist Irans threats against the US and Israel aren’t heard and if Fascist Iran does something stupid, Tehran and Qom will become as HOT as the surface of the Sun – for starters.

          Even the Mahdi can’t believe how stupid the ayatoolas are.

          I hope the Persian people will rise up and smite the ayatoolas – before it’s too late.

  • Feb 14, 2019 @ 23:13 at 23:13

    Operation Sampson !

    Jeremiah 49:34-39
    God will break the bow of Elam – Iran.
    Elam will be “Dismayed” !

    The wind travels westward over the Persian Gulf.
    Elam – Bushehr nuclear reactors must be hit as the wind turns to the east during a no moon evening.
    Raytheon must step up production of new gravity autonomous mini – missiles.

  • Feb 15, 2019 @ 8:20 at 8:20


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