Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah as Mid East powerhouses
The Hizballah “special forces” battling Lebanese protesters are bound to swap their sticks for live ammo as Lebanon plunges into regime breakup amid a crumbling economy. Saad Hariri’s resignation as prime minister on Tuesday, Oct. 29, did not of itself greatly impact the declining political situation in Beirut – not only because he was not a strong leader, but because the sustained protest across the country had already cast Lebanon into three major power groupings in which he had no place:
DEBKAfile outlines those groupings:
- The ruling caste led by President Michel Aoun and kin who are standing aloof from the turbulence on the streets.
- The protesters who have managed to sustain the momentum of their demonstrations into a third week, while also preserving their non-secular national unity of purpose – hitherto unheard of in divided Lebanon – in their fight to be rid of a corrupt ruling administration. This could throw the country into chaos or end in each group reverting to its ethnical-religious roots for civil war.
- Hizballah, which is watching its power bases in central government fall apart. While sending his “special forces” to break up the street demonstrations by force, Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah made the fatal mistake, maybe out of panic, of lining up with the central government targeted by the protest movement. This gave credence to the demonstrators’ demand to remove Hizballah from any new national ruling administration resulting tomorrow from their struggle.
It may be taken for granted that Lebanon’s various religious and ethnic groups and factions have reacted to the burgeoning power of the street by busily topping up their stores of weapons, ready to set up the lines for defending their communities. The elements of civil war are therefore already being put in place.
Here, Hizballah has the advantage – a paramilitary armed force unmatched by any of its rivals. This Shiite group commands 25,000 men under arms, of whom 6,000 spent six years on the battlefields of Syria, and an arsenal provided by Iran of some 130,000 assorted rockets. No rival group has the slightest chance of prevailing over Nasrallah’s army.
The coming issue of DEBKA Weekly (for subscribers) out on Friday, Nov. 1, offers exclusive information and insights on the forces at work in Lebanon’s crisis and its impact on Iran and Hizballah as Middle East powerhouses. For a subscription, click here.
58 thoughts on “Lebanon’s plunge into civil warfare shakes Iran, Hizballah as Mid East powerhouses”
Arab spring season ii
@Robert… Bigger Than Arab Spring, It Is The Start Of Shiia Spring Chaos!
Nasrallah will fix it , he will blame Israel.So if things get out of control you know whats going to happen.
Where is the Lebanese Army?
The Lebanese Army is controlled by Hizbollah.
And the Christians will run to Greece and Cyprus like they did during the last civil war. I hope this mess of a civil war can be avoided. Beirut is a beautiful city. If it were not for outside interference, the the three major local factions (Sunni, Shia, and Christian) might co-exist on their own.
@StrikeEagle… Nasrallah & Hizballah Will Overact Much Like Isis Abu Bakr Of Isis Once Did, Gone Now. Everybody Talks About Israel Being Confronted On 3 Fronts, But Hizballah Is Surrounded On 4 Fronts & Hiding Is Known?
Israel need to be careful, since this time there is no Arik Sharon to solve problems . This time there is Bibi and ex PM Barak , the failure of ME peace process and Lebanon general that left Christians to be dealt with by abandoning them or at best relocating them to Israel . This time there will be no civil war , but war where Israel will see itself in the middle of it with USA . They both are missing the good old days of rockets barages and blown USA bases.
ממשלת הזלה לא תקום !! — גילוי מדהים לגבי העתיד
This is one conflict where Trump and Russia should get together to put Hezbollah in its place and allow the people of Lebanon leaders without the terrorists controlling the country.
A Hizballah victory is not inevitable but one can understand why the author(s) might think so.
There are a lot of dynamics in a civil war and while being trained, experienced, and equipped is certainly a big advantage – there are too many other factors to consider Hizballah to be the slam-dunk victor.
The end will be: Hizbollah will take the Lebanese government through golpe.
Coup d’etat. Putsch.
BOMB THE TRANNIE NUTSWALLOWER WHILE SHE IS HIDING IN HER CLOSET UNDER HER LADIES DRESSES LOOKING AT PICTURES OF YOUNG ARAB BOYS!
Lebanon used to be one of the Arab Gems of the Middle East, with many tourists, a sound banking economy and a more western modern government. Now Iran has armed Hezbollah and it has changed the Country, but not forever as the balance can be restored by the Sunni and Christian Citizens who are demanding Freedom and a better life.
@Moishe… Used To Be Is The Key Before Sins Of Shiia?
Millions of Lebanese Christians have fled the country already.
This is looking more and more like a CIA/Mossad style color revolution each day. I can only hope that the Lebanese people are able to clean out the corruption without ending up with a American puppet government or the country destroyed by a Civil War. Strategically Civil War is most likely the aim of this as it would weaken the country and provide the opportunity for a Israel invasion.
Tommyski, Stop pounding down the CHEAP VODKA all day long. It makes you see Jews and others you don’t like EVERYWHERE and FREAKS you OUT!
It might come a day when the lebanese will welcome israel as liberators, just as the ugandese welcomed the tanzanian army as liberators from idi amin.
State your facts to support it is CIA/Mossad.
Now who’s mourning here and gnashing their teeths, seeing CIA mosssd everywhere…… what happened to the”israel surrounded”???…. start mourning also for Iran and Iraq……. and let me add this, looks like the powers that be still don’t want Syria stable
there you go!!! Blame the CIA and the Mossad
How can Muslims get along with NON-Muslims AKA Infidels,
when Muslims can’t even get along with FELLOW Muslims???
@Marg-Swine… It Is about Sunnis-Shiia Islam Hissy Fits Dating Back to 632 AD-BC!
Hizbollah is bleeding in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and other places. This is part of the big picture that should weaken this group drastically. Fighting in Syria does not strengthen Hizbollah.
The Shias are getting tired of Nasrallah and his adventure around the globe. They want the basic needs (food, job, and dignity). The Shias themselves will take out Nasrallah.
@Dave_2… The Start Of Sins Of Shiia Autumn Fall Blowback On Shiia Now In Chaos As Predicted!
Hizballah’s Military Budget 1 Billion Dollars Per Year Gambled & Lost Support At Home On Syria!
Lebanese-Born American Scholar Walid Phares Is POTUS Trump Top Counterterrorism Advisor: https://youtu.be/A5N2H5HXEms
The US uses the protection of the ATS oil fields from terrorists as an excuse to stay in Syria, while the US military is there illegally, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to him, even experts from the United States understand that any use of the natural resources of a sovereign state without his consent is illegal.
This is an excuse Lavrov criticized the US for plans for Syria
This is Lebanon. Things can get out of control,” https://nationalinterest.org/feature/lebanese-prime-minister-resigns-amidst-countrywide-protests-92006 catastrophic effects of such political dysfunction
This is the direct result of Hezbollah taking over parts of the government. Nasrallah will see that Lebanon regardless of Iran’s wishes will fight a Civil War to end Hezbollah’s influence on the government of Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s influence on the government of Lebanon was based on money and resources, and all this has gradually dried up, mostly because sanctions.
Hezbollah is doomed, they have no way out, other than the threat with civil war.
Iran now Regrets what they have been doing since 1979. The Tehran Shiia Regime can’t control the Proxies that will bring about Iran Regime Demise.
The Lebanese nation is demonstrating AGAINST imminent and total destruction – by the machinations of Israel-hating Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors: NOT for anything or anyone else !
Whats more likely to happen is that Iranian troops and militia forces will be moved into Lebanon and this CIA/Mossad Color Revolution backfires and worsens the Israeli statistic situation like all the machinations over the last decade have. The real looses here are the Lebanese people.
Its always far more effective than launching a major invasion of Lebanon from the start, its always better to fracture the society play the groups against each other before you invade and break up the country Normally a color revolution is used to put a puppet in power like the current Egyptian Jewish born el-Sisi but Greater Israel is behind schedule. Large numbers of Iranian troops wearing militia uniforms in Lebanon will give new meaning to the Israeli Iranian hysteria. But you reap what you sow and Color Revolutions are always a two edge sword…
Tommy: a Jew-hating moron, not smart enough to understand same…
Tommyski, so DRUNK and so STUPIDSK.
Tommy is more than likely right again. His track record for spotting things early is good. Is anyone going to be surprised that the CIA or Mossad are working overtime in Lebanon to influence the situation in our favor? This may be the one good thing that putz Bibi has done in a long time
tommy viery gud, viery gud, spasiba!
Yosef… Bottom Line, European Nazi Fascists, Japanese Kamikazes, & Mideast Isis Captured Or Destroyed. The Same Fate Awaits Iran, Hizballah, Hounthis, & Iraq Shiia. Only A Change In Leadership Can Save Them!
Thank you, Global…Amen !
@ Global terrorism …..Yes sir, no sir, three bags full sir. Your comment is made inane by your hysterical use of caps. Where did you pick up this vice?
============================== in conclusion to this article ==============================
Hezbollah is DOOOOMED, ultra DOOOOOOOOOMED, completely DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED
And Khamenei has no other choice than to masturbate in silence. Not sure Quran allows masturbation with the left hand, this because he’s debilitated not only mentally but also lost the use of his other hand
When Ayatollah Khamenei whines blames others for Shiia Protests in Iran, Iraq & Lebanon. Over 250 Iraqis Killed by Snipers with Dozens Injured in Lebanon. IRGC Soleimani siad, “We in Iran know how to deal with protests & we got it under control?”
In any case, after nasrallah capture, a nice proper burial at sea ceremony should take place.
Why pollute the sea?
Drop NAZIralla in pig shiite.
The Middle East Cold War https://youtu.be/veMFCFyOwFI
Tommy, everybody understands that Putin is camouflaging the continues decline of Russian citizens’ welfare by an entanglement in foreign wars. Eventually Arab and Israeli natural gas flowing into Europe will reduce Russian world expansion capabilities. The absence of Russian money in turn will create havoc in Russian Middle Eastern client states (Syria, Iran and now Lebanon), render Siberia as a de-facto Chinese raw materials base and promote revolts of unpaid by the Russian state so called budget employees. Israel needs to stay out of these ME revolutions as Bibi did in Syria.
HORORUS, YOU POST LIKE IDIOT AFTER CONCLUSION?????????????????????????????
Yasmine… I Post Like Khameni & Thank You!
@Yasmine Another commentator murdering English grammar with your caps and use of a bold font. Please stop your lexical shouting and get civil, i.e. cut it out!
@Rorty… Please Provide Substance The Grammar Police Are The Impossible With The Inadequate Of No Content!
Complaining about form with no substance lacks sharing the attributes of thoughts. G-d by definition is substance with all possible attributes, but form with no content lacks thoughts of Knowledge & Wisdom.
Winter is coming.
@Dave… Mideast Old Adage, “No Matter Where People Go, Sooner Or Later, There’s The Rule Of Law For All & People Find That G-d’s Of Abarham Has Already Been There! Terrorists, Atheists & Shiia are just learning Only One Law For All!
Never underestimate the power of nationalism…. Hizbollah’s Lebanese fighters could easily jump ship, leave their Iranian proxy leaders, and join the protest to throw off their colonial conquerers.
Comments are closed.