Evaluating the polls run by Israeli party campaigns for January election

From Monday, Nov. 5, DEBKAfile will publish a weekly assessment of the various party’ campaign performances for the Jan. 22, 2013 general election. It will be based on the parties’ own internal opinion polls.
This is how the main contesting parties stood Monday:

  • The opposition Labor, running for election for the first time under the lead of Shelly Yachimovitch, is doing well:  An election today would bring the party 28-30 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
  • The ruling Likud-Beitenu merger remains favorite with 36-38 prospective seats.
  • The new Future party headed by Yair Lapid in its first test in an election – 10 plus.
  • Former Foreign Minister and Kadima leader Tzipi Livni has spent too long agonizing about whether to throw her hat in the ring; her prospects are fading.
  • Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, if he decides to run, would not garner more than 5-6 seats. There is little enthusiasm for him to return to political life.
  • If the old-timer Shimon Peres were to go back to politics after the presidency and take the lead of a left-of-center bloc, he might put together a 20-22-strong parliamentary faction.
  • A union of all the heavily splintered centrist and leftist parties would grab 40-42 seats.
  • Three existing parties would not make it past the threshold: the left-wing Meretz, the leading opposition Kadima (created by Ariel Sharon and led by Olmert and later Livni); and Atzmaut (Independence) whose members led by Defense Minister Ehud Barak broke away from Labor.

     

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