The IDF intelligence service (AMAN) in its annual assessment gives Iran two years to develop a nuclear bomb, since components for the program still need to be procured from outside sources. Neither is a large-scale war foreseen from Iran or its Lebanese proxy in the coming year. Iran, which has not recovered from the loss of its top strategist Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and has suffered major setbacks from IDF attacks on its military bases in Syria, appears to be refocusing on Iraq and Yemen, say the intelligence analysts. The development of long-range missiles makes those countries convenient launch-pads for attacking Israe.
Neither Hizballah nor Israel are looking for a full-scale war, but the Lebanese terrorists are seen to be preparing for the kind of low-scale belligerence practiced by its Hamas allies from the Gaza Strip.
AMAN chief Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman told reporters this week about the IDF’s constant efforts to eliminate Hizballah’s precision-guided missiles. He spoke of the effectiveness of its “high quality response” to this threat by both “overt and covert tactics.”