Iran’s Parliament Research Center has forecast a recession of 2.6% to 5.5% by March, in consequence of long-term economic problems and US sanctions. If Iran’s oil exports fall 800,000 barrels per day, then the GDP will plummet 2.6% for the year ending March 20. If the fall is 1.6 million bpd, then the GDP decline will be 5.5%. Since April, Iran’s exports have dropped 1.4 million bpd, from 2.5 million bpd to 1.1 million bpd.
That was before the comprehensive sanctions, including on the energy and financial sectors, were imposed by the US on November 5. A sharper drop in Iran’s oil sales has been buffered, at least through March, by American sanction waivers on Tehran’s top purchasers — provided they reduce their intake of oil from the Islamic Republic. For the 2020-2021 Iranian year, the Research Center forecasts a contraction of 4.5% to 5.5%.