Neither the US nor Israel knows for sure when Iran will have a nuclear weapon

The predictions of US Secretary of State and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Thursday, Nov. 7 that Iran may have a nuclear weapon within a year were more an expression of concern over the reactivation of the under Fordow enrichment site than a forecast based on solid data. The identical one-year prediction was heard in 2012 and nothing was done about it – either by the US or Israel.

It may be said that neither of their intelligence agencies knows for sure when Iran will advance to an operational nuclear capacity – or even where its nukes are to be cached. After all, neither had advance knowledge of Iran’s plan to let loose 25 cruise missiles and exploding drones against Saudi Arabia’s oil fields and processing plant on September 14, until the moment it happened. Can they do better to discover the moment that Iran’s nuclear program is weaponized?

This week, Massimo Aparo, the top inspector of the international nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, summoned a special board meeting to discuss Iran’s failure to level with inspectors on the source of the “man-made and natural uranium particles” found in a secret warehouse in Tehran that was uncovered last year in a daring Israeli Mossad operation to smuggle out Iran’s atomic archive. How many more secret nuclear facilities remain undiscovered in Iran?

The IAEA does not have answers to this any more than the US and Israel. For 15 years, its inspectors have been denied access to an off-limits section of the Parchin military base in central Iran, where too suspicious uranium particles were discovered indicating secret testing of nuclear triggers. Nonetheless, no action was taken then either. The Fordow plant, where extra-fast centrifuges have been put to work on uranium enrichment, was only revealed by underground cells of the Iranian opposition exile movement.

In contrast to an ever-present peril from Iran, a non-existent danger was made much of last week when Netanyahu and some security chiefs commented that Israel was now threatened by Iranian cruise missiles based in Yemen. Had the media who ran the story checked the facts, they would have found that Yemen had stopped firing cruise missiles and exploding drones against Saudi Arabia last year because it no longer possessed those weapons after supplies from Iran had dried up.

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88 thoughts on “Neither the US nor Israel knows for sure when Iran will have a nuclear weapon

  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:16 at 14:16
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    Nuclear weapons are bad news, however what Libya, Iraq, North Korea showed is if you have WMD you won’t get invaded, give up your WMD and you will. It is s pure hypocrisy that Israel which is the most aggressive nation in the region is allowed to have ICBM, Nukes on Subs, hundreds of nuclear weapons and no one else. So if Israel wants to act responsibly and believes that a nuclear free Middle East is in its best interests then it should unilaterally renounce and destroy its nuclear weapons program so that other nations in the region did not feel threatened and have to have their own deterrent against Israel attack.

    Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 15:19 at 15:19
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      Israel does not threaten to destroy its neighbors. But experience tells Israel its neighbors continuously threaten to destroy Israel.

      Reply
      • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:57 at 16:57
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        This is true. For Israel its about survival. Never again Will their enimies do what Hitler tried and almost suceeded at doing, the total annihilation of the jewish race.

        Reply
        • Nov 8, 2019 @ 19:13 at 19:13
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          Why is it that Jews have been hated by almost every nation fir thousands of years? Is it more likely that everyone other people dislikes Jews for no reason, or is it more likely that the actions of the Jewish people are the problem?

          Reply
          • Nov 8, 2019 @ 20:03 at 20:03
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            because muslims and nazis like you have psychiatric diseases

          • Nov 8, 2019 @ 20:48 at 20:48
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            it is because ” salvation is of the Jews” – Jesus

          • Nov 9, 2019 @ 14:27 at 14:27
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            Why are Jews hated?

            Every single time people are hated because of their ancestry it is because of stupidity and/or evil.

            The Jews have been easy targets for hatred for everything from some Christians blaming Jews in general for the death of Christ (and forgetting that He was a Jew) to banking laws to idiotic lies. Also, opportunistic dictators and politicians.

            But it all comes down to stupidity and evil when racism is exhibited.

          • Nov 9, 2019 @ 19:14 at 19:14
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            ey siyonistler abd iki gün önce art arda irana haarp silahları kullandı niye onu söylemiyorsuz alçaklar siyonistler neden zalimce ortadoğuda tek nükleer güç olarak tüm ülkeleri nükleer silahlarla niye tehdit ediyorsuz

      • Nov 8, 2019 @ 21:34 at 21:34
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        Israel does not threaten Iran , but USA and its allies do ; Israel is USA`a proxy . That is why Iran and Israel have a misunderstanding.By the way Iran has a few nukes already , and running centrifuges makes just show . They bought 2 or 3 of them in those deals around 6-8 years ago. Good luck.Make peace , otherwise Israel and its Arab supporters will be gone.

        Reply
        • Nov 9, 2019 @ 17:58 at 17:58
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          Jews are hated out of jealousy.

          Reply
          • Nov 9, 2019 @ 18:00 at 18:00
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            Jews are hated out of jealousy. The same reasons why the indolent hate the rich.

        • Nov 10, 2019 @ 3:29 at 3:29
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          tell that to your 12th Imam.

          Reply
          • Nov 10, 2019 @ 10:15 at 10:15
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            Fvck Fascist Iran’s Khomeni, Khameni and General Salami, General Baloney.

            May they ALL spend eternity BURNING in He LL

      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 19:13 at 19:13
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        ey siyonistler abd iki gün önce art arda irana haarp silahları kullandı niye onu söylemiyorsuz alçaklar siyonistler neden zalimce ortadoğuda tek nükleer güç olarak tüm ülkeleri nükleer silahlarla niye tehdit ediyorsuz

        Reply
      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 20:45 at 20:45
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        Israel continues to threaten all of its neighbours or have you never heard of the greater israel plan

        Reply
        • Nov 9, 2019 @ 23:06 at 23:06
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          @ concerned. Your bias is extreme. You are indoctrinated. Get a brain you can call your own.

          Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 20:08 at 20:08
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      muslim pig ahmed and never tommy

      Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 20:57 at 20:57
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      If Mossad operation to smuggle out Iran’s atomic archives was true, then don’t worry just check those files.
      But we all know that was bull shooot

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 2:46 at 2:46
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      word of a crazed crackhead

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 9:17 at 9:17
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      I can tell you when they will know for sure.

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 14:17 at 14:17
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      Do you not see the glaring contradiction in what you wrote? ” If you have WMD you won’t get invaded, give up your WMD and you will”
      So who is repeatedly threatening to wipe a nation, a country off the map, Israel threatening Iran, or …. see what I mean,
      Think before you write.

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 16:12 at 16:12
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      tommy:another accomplice of the adepts of the religion of peace

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 23:02 at 23:02
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      @Tommy

      shill.

      Reply
    • Nov 10, 2019 @ 1:42 at 1:42
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      As a former member of the US Army, Tommy, your comment is BS

      Reply
    • Nov 10, 2019 @ 7:46 at 7:46
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      To carry on the door you have opened about WMD needed for deterrent-
      Japan needs nuclear weapons as a consequence of North Korean program? Brazil is nuclear capable from a technical standpoint, maybe to keep the British away?

      Germany is probably most technically advanced nation in EU; no doubt the Russians would be their rationale to reveal the bombs in the basement. Surely there are other combinations? South Africa had bombs but gave them up. Second thoughts?

      Which discussion brings us to dat ol’ debbil, pre-emption. Will any and all Muslim nations with nuclear pre-empt Israel, or vice versa? Should Israel wait for the first strike & react after loss of Haifa or Tel Aviv? Japan should wait for North Korea? Fat dumb and happy USA simply waits for any and all sorts of terrorist or sovereign adversary event!

      USA most likely picks Iran and North Korea as most likely first tier enemies, and history tells of a “False Flag” EMP series in the Troposphere, hoping transport recovers quickly enough to forestall famine & cannibalism. Famine hedge in the lower 48 is problematic owing to loss of most branch line rail links into food production regions as were extant circa 1950. Pre-emptive action is not out of the question against the Iranian/PDRK axis after False Flag event triggers action. Significant factor pointing to North Korea and Iranian leadership initiating hostilities are war crime liabilities for several category of crimes list for top echelon leadership in both of these rogue regimes. Fostering terrorism will do for the Iranian leadership; Death camps for the PDRK..

      Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:33 at 14:33
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    It would be astonishing incompetence if they don’t already have one. If only ‘on loan’ from N Korea or Pakistan.

    Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:37 at 14:37
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    Israel lies about WMD and how Iraq would have nuclear weapons within months is what brought America into the Middle East wars. This has cost us thousands of dead, trillions of dollars and shown that Israel cant be trusted and will lie to have greater nations attack and destroy its enemies. The uranium particles were most likely planted by Mossad as a means of trying to manufacture a narrative that Iran is not in compliance with deal it signed. But this is not the first time that Israel has tried this, though possibly its the first time that they have contaminated Iranian sites. What right has the US or Israel to say to Iran that you may not conduct nuclear research? Both these States have very large nuclear weapons programs, ICBM’s and regularly invade and bomb other nations. Jewish hypocrisy and hysteria shows that you have psychological problems that you need too address before you can be trusted with nuclear weapons. Blame others for your mental health issues if you must but your worldview is not rational.

    Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:14 at 16:14
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      To Holmes:

      I’m sure Israel and the United States care about what you think. You are an example of a living zero.

      Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:20 at 16:20
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      KATIE HOLMES = MAD POSTINGS OF A SUFFERER OF DONKEY SYPHILIS

      Reply
      • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:50 at 16:50
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        Jim Carrol,
        Absolutely. The moron should guzzle antifreeze to cure the syphilis.

        Reply
        • Nov 8, 2019 @ 17:54 at 17:54
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          GUZZLE AND THEN SWALLOW LIKE SHE DOES WITH HER FAVORITE DONKEY!

          Reply
          • Nov 9, 2019 @ 22:18 at 22:18
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            In Iran, couples that want a marriage license are required to take an hour-long lecture on contraception. Iranians are not expressly told this is because food crisis in the light of the sanctions, but …. Anyhow, safe alternatives to conception are highly praised.

            Jim Carrol, would you accept your books or articles to publish in Persian, please? Publisher Behnashr house is highly respected here in Tehran.

      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 3:09 at 3:09
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        you right Carol you are venereal authority on Debka publishing , that by now developed new venereal decease called Caroline. Beware of it you reading morons.

        Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 19:24 at 19:24
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      Well said Katie and so true. Zionists dont like to hear or discuss the truth especially in public as it effects their narrative. Its through ignorance that people support Israel, one they learn the truth their support ceases.

      Reply
      • Nov 8, 2019 @ 20:17 at 20:17
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        SAMANTHA TELL US MORE ABOUT YOUR MADE LOVE LIFE WITH DONKEYS!

        Reply
      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 4:53 at 4:53
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        haaaahhhh another woman’s name… now it is Samantha.. same idiot congratulating himself.
        ahmad go back to your donkey

        Reply
      • Nov 10, 2019 @ 9:59 at 9:59
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        SATANtha,

        GFY and Happy Nakba to you and ALL Sand Na zis!

        Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 19:51 at 19:51
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      Katie Holmes,
      This is the truth. Israel dragged the US into the Iraq war.

      Reply
      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 23:12 at 23:12
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        Bob White: tell that to George W Bush

        Reply
        • Nov 11, 2019 @ 7:46 at 7:46
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          Bush would agree. He got sucked-in too.

          Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 4:51 at 4:51
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      Katie… your rant is so clearly without facts and just blubbering like an idiot… your name is not :Katie Holmes” rather it is Ahmad the donkey… stupid man. enough of trying to deflect. go back to your donkey.

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 20:51 at 20:51
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      Well said . I find it most enlightening the language used against you . Says volumes of the state of mind of those who cannot grasp clear thinking

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 23:09 at 23:09
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      Answer: their behaviour and their actions, which you are evidently blind to.

      Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:38 at 14:38
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    Iran allready has nuclear capability…

    https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005-05/ukraine-admits-missile-transfers

    The iranian Soumar cruise missile looks like a russian KH-55…
    Iran allready showed part of its capability when they attacked Saudi Arabia’s oil fields…

    Israel and the US knows that Iran has nuclear capability.
    This is the reason why the preemptive strike option never “took off” from the table…

    Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:45 at 14:45
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    Sorry Mohammad, that will never happen.

    Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:45 at 14:45
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    We have nothing to loose by keeping up the embargo.

    Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 18:15 at 18:15
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      Love how Kh hides behind her facade of caring for and protecting ‘murica! While spewing her not so transparent anti Jew tropes. Mossad did this, jews do that. Go back to zerohedge, Vashti. We’re not waiting for the next Aryan extermination. We’re cutting it off cold.

      Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 14:53 at 14:53
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    V.D does a number on ones mind, much like jew hatred.
    Question is, did it come from the mother?
    Good point though, iL will be hard to invade by the Muslims hordes when it has nukes.

    Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 15:04 at 15:04
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    Trump should sanction Iran!!

    Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 23:16 at 23:16
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      Trump is already doing so, ignoramus.

      Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 15:30 at 15:30
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    Iran’s pursuit of nuclear bombs will not change much in the way it conducts its activities in the region.

    the goal of all nations is continuity. Iran being a regime that does not follow the norms, will talk a great deal, threaten a great deal, but will do little.
    to bring destruction on the regime’s head by being aggressive, will shorten the life of their dreams

    Certainly the embargoes are really hurting and everyday, it hurts a little more. the people can only accept so much before they march again against the regime.
    the spending what reserves they have on war positions through Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis, will only last so long as their oil exports being what they are.
    with the USA increasing their position of becoming the #1 exporter of oil, even more than Saudi Arabia in a number of years, will further deteriorate the regimes ability to wage war.

    they are already “”insisting” the EU work with them as per the agreement signed on nuclear programs by Iran, show an extreme need for money. slowly they are dying and they know it but are powerless, having the bomb certainly will work against them.
    they won’t attack anyone, but will continue to threaten. talk is always cheaper than the doing, but it also keeps you alive.Iran is surrounded by nukes aimed at them. they know this too.

    by keeping the pressure on Iran, it will force them to make changes in their behavior, if for no reason then their own peoples welfare.

    Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:04 at 16:04
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    Gross ignorance. burning hatred of Jews and everything Jewish is the substance of at least a half of all posts on Debka, unfortunately…!

    Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:40 at 16:40
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      You mean that the dislike of hypocrisy and illegal actions are antisemitism because they do not serve your narrative. I’m going to guess and say that very few people anywhere actually hate Jews. What i take issue with is your blatant hypocrisy, racist behavior and never ending crimes against your neighbors. I admit that this based on the new Definition created by Zionism would mean that i am antisemitic. But that any criticism of Israel is now a thought crime shows how messed up Zionism is and how much influence over European politics you have. Russian political meddling is not the problem, Jews meddling is the true threat to democracy.

      Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 17:48 at 17:48
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      Its because people are no longer ignorant of the fact that they are pushing back against this flase narrative that you Israelis like to push. If you just told the truth and got rid of this double standard people would have a lot more trust in Israel. But the the never ending hpocrisy and the Jewish battle to cover it up tarnishes even the times when you are telling the truth and are justified in your actions.

      Reply
      • Nov 8, 2019 @ 19:16 at 19:16
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        Anonymous writes as if they are Angeles from heaven, righteous beings with no blemishes……. honestly and without prejudice, just take a look at your habitat,what you should be calling home country,riddled with bullets, bombings,muder,behedings, child molestation, slavery….. millions of your son’s and daughters are fleeing ,drowning while fleeing from their own fathers and uncles,
        Cursed lots,no dictionary can describe your lifes
        Are you that good to accuse anybody as bad? as hypocrite?….. your shauls are stinking dirty,……..

        Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:04 at 16:04
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    Time will tell……

    Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:24 at 16:24
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    NUKE THE BEARDED PERSIAN FREAKS WHILE THEY ARE PLAYING WITH THEIR HUMP-BACKED ANIMALS PRIVATES!

    Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 16:43 at 16:43
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      You a very funny man. You should create your own cartoon like South Park and i think you would be very successful

      Reply
      • Nov 8, 2019 @ 17:55 at 17:55
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        THANK YOU!…ONE DAY THE WORLD WILL RECOGNIZE MY GENIUS!

        Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 3:32 at 3:32
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      haha … have you ever seen what a Persian woman looks like? Check. Now take a look at the women around you. LOL. Poor you. Your women look like those hump-backed animals when in fact they are still human. Oh poor you!!

      Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 19:35 at 19:35
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    Netty Yahoo pushed for Trump to cancel JCPOA. You got your wish and now you will have a shiny missile with your name on it. Congrats. Enjoy the fireworks in your honour…

    Reply
    • Nov 8, 2019 @ 20:15 at 20:15
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      BUT FIRST WE PULVERIZE TEHRAN AND QUM WHILE YOUR BEARDED PERV LEADER IS MAKING FOREPLAY WITH HIS HUMP-BACKED FRIENDS!

      Reply
      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 14:38 at 14:38
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        How about your mama sharmuta gets pulverized??

        Reply
        • Nov 9, 2019 @ 15:36 at 15:36
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          GINGER..YOU ARE SOME NASTY HOE. I CAN SMELL YOUR STINKY PRIVATES FROM MY KEYBOARD.

          Reply
          • Nov 9, 2019 @ 16:07 at 16:07
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            No bigger sharmuta than your moma . Your mind is clouded by the toxic stench coming from her diseased crotch. That is precisely why you moved on from humping her onto any animal you can get your filthy hands on. You sick nustard from smelly sharmuta mother!!

      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 15:08 at 15:08
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        Did you do your sharmuta mommy today?

        Reply
        • Nov 9, 2019 @ 17:28 at 17:28
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          @Yosef… Fake GingerST001 do not Post that way. Neither Is That Jim Carrol. These Posters Just Upset They Can’t Refute What Other Posts So They Turn To Name-Calling. We Post Substance Backing Up Our Opinions. They Post Mostly Personal Attacks. Reason Over Rage Always Rules The Day & Adds To Discussions!

          Reply
          • Nov 9, 2019 @ 23:20 at 23:20
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            Oh, so now Deborah is back again with her caps pretending to be GST001. When will you ever learn that your acrostics make no sense and your caps strongly suggest madness?

      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 15:10 at 15:10
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        I bet your mother smells worse than any goat you humped in your life. Be honest: do you love humping goats more than your sharmuta mother??

        Reply
  • Nov 8, 2019 @ 22:54 at 22:54
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    Debka Info is again accurate and I see it. Just confirming the Iran Shiia Regime wants the Sanctions removed so it can continue Shiia Expansion into Arabia Gulf State Sunnis Nations as part of the Arabian-Iranian Proxies Conflicts. Acquisition of Nukes will happen sooner or late then expand to Other Mideast Nations. No Nation will use Nukes on each other but Terrorists will if they can acquire them if some Toppled Governments Fall.

    Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 16:11 at 16:11
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      CAN ANYONE HELP ME FIND AN ANIMAL I CAN HUMP!? MY MOTHER SMELLS TOO MUCH. I THINK SHE GOT DISEASE DOWN THERE. MY GOAT DIED LAST NIGHT SO I HAVE NOTHING TO HUMP. AMY HELP WILL BE VERY APPRECIATED!!!

      Reply
      • Nov 9, 2019 @ 16:17 at 16:17
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        Shanda on you Jim Carrol!! As a Jew I Am ashamed of you. You are a sick, sick man.

        Leave your aging mother alone! Stop humping your animals too!

        Get help. Go to your closest emergency room right away. Tell them your problems. Tell them everything. Don’t try to hump the nurses for God’s sake!! They will medicate you and send you to a psychologist. You can be normal! Don’t give up!!

        Shalom!!

        Reply
        • Nov 9, 2019 @ 20:57 at 20:57
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          SHALOM, YOUR MOTHER THINKS I AM A PLEASURABLE MAN WHO GIVES AND GETS GREAT PLEASURE. GO ASK HER AFTER WE FINISH!

          Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 1:25 at 1:25
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    ‘I’m Feeling Hawkish’ – episode 17.

    John Bolton turned up the heat on his former Boss Man with news coming through of his disapproval of Giuliani in relation to Ukraine and the Biden’s.

    The Hawkish former national Security Secretary warned that President Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani was a “hand grenade” who was “going to blow up everyone,” according to transcripts released Friday.

    Payback? Yes please!!

    IT IS GOOD TO FEEL HAWKISH!

    Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 6:49 at 6:49
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    Lol Pakistan has nukes to sell to good friends If they need it
    Think about it

    Reply
    • Nov 10, 2019 @ 10:11 at 10:11
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      India has nukes to keep Kashmir and sell to good friends if they need it.

      Think about it Paki perverts.

      Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 10:39 at 10:39
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    This reader comment feature is merely there to insult Jews and print anti-Jew remarks. If the editor of Debka allows this,it is a very great shame/shanda! If this is what is allowed under pretence of FREE SPEACH then it is sick.

    Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 14:36 at 14:36
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      Shanda is your mother who is a sharmuta.

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 15:57 at 15:57
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      @Alan if the comments make you feel uncomfortable its going to be best not to read them. Debka is not a safe space it represents real life, so if you disagree with the comments say why and if you feel the person is a ahole say so. Learn from the master Mr Jim Carroll and dont feel that you need to hold back. Many come to enjoy the combative nature of the exchanges.

      Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 16:43 at 16:43
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      Best you learn to toughen up your self. American Jews are to soft and i agree with Ari, the Safe Space culture especially on the University campus do no good. So come to Israel and learn to be a man not a snivelling worm.

      Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 18:43 at 18:43
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    I realized there is another Robert in this post,..
    … well I am deep Zionist, any post against Israel is not mine,…

    Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 19:16 at 19:16
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    ey siyonistler abd iki gün önce art arda irana haarp silahları kullandı niye onu söylemiyorsuz alçaklar siyonistler neden zalimce ortadoğuda tek nükleer güç olarak tüm ülkeleri nükleer silahlarla niye tehdit ediyorsuz

    Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 20:36 at 20:36
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    Лучший канал с новостями Link со всего мира.

    Reply
  • Nov 9, 2019 @ 20:56 at 20:56
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    The most hated in the whole World are the Muslims = the less loved are the Muslims
    The less hated are the Israelis = Israel is the most loved in the whole World

    Can not take it, hard to comprehend, then take this: even Muslims hate Muslims

    Reply
    • Nov 9, 2019 @ 21:57 at 21:57
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      Global Views of Iran Overwhelmingly Negative, the chart that shows what the world thinks of Iran – Gallup Historical Trends. Why hide the truth? The whole World despises Iran, that’s it.

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/116236/iran.aspx

      Reply
  • Nov 10, 2019 @ 18:16 at 18:16
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    Neither u.s know for sure where is nuclear weapon in n.korea.u.s don t know anything

    Reply
  • Nov 11, 2019 @ 10:22 at 10:22
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    The sooner the better

    Reply

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